Thursday, August 19, 2010

Barnes And Noble Speculation

The Barnes And Noble,Ron Burkle Yucaipa Proxy fight is generating novel like scenarios. Here is a link  which offers some fairly good background:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=11390345

So why would anyone, much less, Burkle and Yupica be interested in Barnes And Noble, especially now, the stock is down to an all time low ( See the chart below) and sales are are in what some may describe as a free fall due partly to the great recession, but mainly to Amazon, and on the horizon,Apple. True Barnes And Noblel has tried to compete and reverse the trend with B&N.com and it's own e-reader, but to date has not been able to keep pace with the Amazon and the Kindle revolution. Frankly it's just not their core business.

So the question remains, why would anyone acquire Barnes And Noble, more to the point why Yucaipa? After all weren't they burned just a few years ago with their entrance into the publishing and magazine and book distribution business ( Source Interlink bankruptcy)? Think of it, Barnes And Noble can be had for a bargain price,but would someone like Burkle be satisfied with an old economy brick and mortar chain store? Perhaps, but wouldn't it make sense that once the company gets beyond its current woes with new ownership, the next logical step would be merger or acquisition or an outright sale. Sell/merge to/with who? Why not Amazon? See their stock chart below:



An Amazon/B&N company would be the largest book seller in the world, not to mention magazines and newspapers. Throw in Kindel and the possibilities become endless, e-reader, brick and motor and e-tailing! Each "division" has the infrastructure in place and it could be easily integrated as one company. I like to think Mr. Burkel knows this, he certainly knows retailing and distribution and intimately knows Barnes And Nobel ( He and Mr. Riggio were major investors in Alliance Entertainment , a company merged in with Source Interlink). He knows the distribution and vendor end of the business. As a matter of fact Amazon would be able to gain access to those vendors and perhaps consolidate from the hundreds, perhaps thousands of suppliers they now deal with.

What about Borders? Well should the B&N deal fall through, what better "plan b"? The independent booksellers? Don't under estimate them, while they are sadly struggling they are a force to reckoned with. Does anyone remember their fierce opposition and subsequent pressure on the Justice Department which ended the Barnes And Nobel purchase of Ingram book distributors? Books-A-Million, perhaps ripe for acquisition? A season of mergers.

With all this in mind ( and mind you it's shear speculation) one can't help but think back to the disastrous AOL Time Warnner merger in the 90's.

What about Apple, the largest music retailer in the world, with B&N they could be the largest book seller. The scenarios are endless and I believe Mr. Burkel knows this.








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